Live prediction market prices and traded volume from the source. Implied probabilities without a sportsbook margin baked in.
A prediction market price is a probability with money behind it. When a contract trades at 0.62, participants are collectively pricing a 62% chance — and unlike sportsbook odds, that number is not padded with a bookmaker margin, because the market is participants trading against each other rather than against a house.
We pull prices and traded volume directly from the source and rank by volume, because a tight price on a market nobody trades is not information.
A sportsbook builds its edge into the line: two-way odds usually imply a total probability well above 100%, and the excess is the margin. A prediction market charges fees instead, so the price is closer to a clean probability estimate.
That makes these prices useful as a benchmark. If a sportsbook is offering worse implied odds than a liquid prediction market on the same question, you can see exactly how much the margin is costing you — our no-vig calculator does that conversion.
Thin markets drift, and a price with no volume behind it is closer to an opinion than a forecast. Long-dated contracts also carry a time-value distortion, since capital is locked until resolution.
A prediction market price is a traded probability. A sportsbook price is a probability plus the book’s margin, which is why the implied chances on a two-way sportsbook market sum to more than 100% and market prices sum to roughly 100%.
The caveat is liquidity. A thin market can print a price that no meaningful size could actually trade at, so treat volume as part of the quote rather than as a footnote to it.
It is the best public estimate available, weighted by money at risk. On liquid markets that is hard to beat; on illiquid ones it is barely meaningful.
No. WagerDB does not take bets or operate any market. We display prices and volume as data.