Real probabilities and cost per unit for every baccarat bet on an eight-deck shoe, commission included. Why banker is cheaper than player.
Baccarat has three bets and the player makes no decisions after placing one — drawing is fixed by the rules. Banker wins more often than player and the house takes 5% of banker wins to compensate; after the commission banker is still the cheaper bet.
| Bet | Pays | Chance | Cost per unit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker — Pays 1:1 less 5% commission — the lowest cost on the table | 1:1 −5% | 45.86% (push 9.52%) | 1.06% |
| Player — Pays 1:1, no commission | 1:1 | 44.62% (push 9.52%) | 1.23% |
| Tie (8:1) — The common online paytable | 8:1 | 9.52% | 14.36% |
| Tie (9:1) — Better paytable, still the worst bet here | 9:1 | 9.52% | 4.84% |
| Banker pair — First two banker cards match in rank | 11:1 | 7.47% | 10.36% |
| Player pair — First two player cards match in rank | 11:1 | 7.47% | 10.36% |
Baccarat gives the player no decisions after the wager is placed — drawing is fixed by the rules and the dealer executes them. The entire game is therefore the bet you choose, and there are only three: banker, player and tie.
Banker wins about 45.9% of hands to player’s 44.6%, with the remaining 9.5% ending in a tie that pushes both. The house takes 5% of banker wins to level that advantage, and after the commission banker still costs 1.06% against player’s 1.24%. Paying the commission is the cheaper option, which is the part most players get backwards.
A tie occurs on roughly one hand in ten and pays 8:1 on most online tables. That combination costs 14.36% — more than thirteen times the banker bet and worse than nearly anything on a casino floor. On the rarer 9:1 paytable it improves to 4.84%, which is still four times the price of simply betting banker.
Side bets on pairs sit in between at about 10.4%. They exist for the same reason the tie does: the main game is priced too tightly to be profitable on its own.
Baccarat tables hand out scorecards and display bead plates and big roads because tracking previous results feels like information. It is not. The shoe is close to independent between hands, and the tiny dependency that does exist from card removal is far too small to overcome a one-percent edge, let alone to be read off a pattern of red and blue dots.
The one thing that genuinely varies is the commission. Tables advertising “no commission” baccarat typically pay banker wins on a 6 at half stake, which is worse than the ordinary 5% — the edge rises to about 1.46%.
On an eight-deck shoe: 1.06% on banker after the 5% commission, 1.24% on player, and 14.36% on the tie at 8:1.
Banker. It wins more often, and even after paying 5% commission on wins it remains the cheaper bet by about two tenths of a percent.
No. At 8:1 it costs 14.36% and at the better 9:1 paytable still 4.84% — several times the price of the main bets.
No. Hands are effectively independent, and no record of past results changes the odds of the next one.
Usually worse. These tables normally pay banker wins on a total of 6 at half stake, which raises the edge to roughly 1.46%.